Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
__________________________________________________________________________________________
A strategic masterpiece
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on Feb. 19, published on Feb 26, 2009
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego (Q): Looks like we are in a bit a strategic dilemma now.
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Why is that?
Q: Well, given that there is a consensus growing that the US is in deed heading for a recession, it would surely be
the right time now to buy stocks and assets there, correct?
Nd: Correct!
Q: At same time though, your analysis tells us that the mechanisms which are put in place to fight the impending
recession will only create the next boom and thereby prepare the ground for an even worse recession later. And
since you also tell us that you can never know when the tide is turning on a market it would follow from this, that
we could not o take advantage of the lower prices but would have to stay on the sidelines as the impending
buying opportunities unfold. Equally correct?
Nd: Not necessarily.
Q: Why do you say that?
Nd: Because a prudent management of the next boom-bust-circle does not exclude buying into the current
downturn. It just requires selecting those stocks that will be somewhat recession-prove.
Q: And what assets would that be?
Nd: Well, it could be, for instance, the New York Times. After all a sense of drama in general public will only lead
to the strengthening of the traditional media. For too entrenched is their credibility that they would not be able to
profit now from the lack of credibility that other institutions are suffering from.
Q: So Noah denkt™ believes then that it can play both the buying opportunity as well as the boom-bust-scenario?
Nd. Absolutely, albeit without the spectacular short-term gains that a less prudent management might be able to
generate in that next cycle.
Q: What other stocks are there that might be equally recession-prove?
Nd. Well, we suppose that all the veteran media companies that have developed a certain gravity in their editorial
competence will have that kind of survivor quality.
Q: So you would also stick with Grupo Prisa and its “El País” newspaper?
Nd: Exactly. But you could also add to that The Pearson Group in the UK, although at current prices, we still find
that stock too expensive.
Q: What about other media stocks like Yahoo, News Corp, or Time Warner?
Nd: Yahoo, we like, even though it seems to go through a lot of turmoil right now, which, by the way, is hard for us
to understand. News Corp, however, would not at all be on our list. Its outlets simply don’t have (perhaps with the
exception of Sky News) the editorial credibility that would make them recession-prove. Time-Warner does not
No, instead of buying into these opportunistic media stocks Noah denkt™ would rather consider supporting non-
public media companies like “Le Monde”, “Le Monde diplomatique”, “Die Zeit”, or the Washington Post, that have
shown at least some journalistic backbone in its trajectory up to now.
Q: What about non-media companies like Deutsche Telekom or even auto-makers like Ford and Volkswagen.
Would they qualify as recession-prove?
Nd: That is a hard one, especially as far as the auto-makers are concerned. Noah denkt™, however, would stick
with all of them, just hoping that the combination of an established brand name and the sheer sense of
emergency that reigns in these companies will lead them to be more innovative and forward thinking than their
competition. But make no mistake, this is somewhat of a wild bet.
Q: So all in all, Noah denkt™ does not foresee major changes in its fictitious portfolio.
Nd. Not really.
Q: Even rating agencies and bond insurers are not on the radar screen?
Nd. They are on the radar screen, but we, so far, know too little about their everyday work to make up our mind
on that. Instead it is more likely that we return to beverage companies such as Grupo Modelo from Mexico. After
all, we really like its “Negro Modelo”.
Q: So, we will have stay tuned for further announcements to come.
Nd. Well, you always have to stay tuned for that. Because changes of heart can never be excluded.
Q: So, its business as usual then.
Nd. Yes, it’s business as usual.
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on Feb. 19, published on Feb 26, 2009
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego (Q): Looks like we are in a bit a strategic dilemma now.
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Why is that?
Q: Well, given that there is a consensus growing that the US is in deed heading for a recession, it would surely be
the right time now to buy stocks and assets there, correct?
Nd: Correct!
Q: At same time though, your analysis tells us that the mechanisms which are put in place to fight the impending
recession will only create the next boom and thereby prepare the ground for an even worse recession later. And
since you also tell us that you can never know when the tide is turning on a market it would follow from this, that
we could not o take advantage of the lower prices but would have to stay on the sidelines as the impending
buying opportunities unfold. Equally correct?
Nd: Not necessarily.
Q: Why do you say that?
Nd: Because a prudent management of the next boom-bust-circle does not exclude buying into the current
downturn. It just requires selecting those stocks that will be somewhat recession-prove.
Q: And what assets would that be?
Nd: Well, it could be, for instance, the New York Times. After all a sense of drama in general public will only lead
to the strengthening of the traditional media. For too entrenched is their credibility that they would not be able to
profit now from the lack of credibility that other institutions are suffering from.
Q: So Noah denkt™ believes then that it can play both the buying opportunity as well as the boom-bust-scenario?
Nd. Absolutely, albeit without the spectacular short-term gains that a less prudent management might be able to
generate in that next cycle.
Q: What other stocks are there that might be equally recession-prove?
Nd. Well, we suppose that all the veteran media companies that have developed a certain gravity in their editorial
competence will have that kind of survivor quality.
Q: So you would also stick with Grupo Prisa and its “El País” newspaper?
Nd: Exactly. But you could also add to that The Pearson Group in the UK, although at current prices, we still find
that stock too expensive.
Q: What about other media stocks like Yahoo, News Corp, or Time Warner?
Nd: Yahoo, we like, even though it seems to go through a lot of turmoil right now, which, by the way, is hard for us
to understand. News Corp, however, would not at all be on our list. Its outlets simply don’t have (perhaps with the
exception of Sky News) the editorial credibility that would make them recession-prove. Time-Warner does not
No, instead of buying into these opportunistic media stocks Noah denkt™ would rather consider supporting non-
public media companies like “Le Monde”, “Le Monde diplomatique”, “Die Zeit”, or the Washington Post, that have
shown at least some journalistic backbone in its trajectory up to now.
Q: What about non-media companies like Deutsche Telekom or even auto-makers like Ford and Volkswagen.
Would they qualify as recession-prove?
Nd: That is a hard one, especially as far as the auto-makers are concerned. Noah denkt™, however, would stick
with all of them, just hoping that the combination of an established brand name and the sheer sense of
emergency that reigns in these companies will lead them to be more innovative and forward thinking than their
competition. But make no mistake, this is somewhat of a wild bet.
Q: So all in all, Noah denkt™ does not foresee major changes in its fictitious portfolio.
Nd. Not really.
Q: Even rating agencies and bond insurers are not on the radar screen?
Nd. They are on the radar screen, but we, so far, know too little about their everyday work to make up our mind
on that. Instead it is more likely that we return to beverage companies such as Grupo Modelo from Mexico. After
all, we really like its “Negro Modelo”.
Q: So, we will have stay tuned for further announcements to come.
Nd. Well, you always have to stay tuned for that. Because changes of heart can never be excluded.
Q: So, its business as usual then.
Nd. Yes, it’s business as usual.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
| Conflict of Interest Statement with respect to the companies mentioned in this Q&A Q: Does Wil Leonards hold shares in any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Has Wil Leonards done consulting work for any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Do members of Wil Leonards' family hold shares in any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Have members of Wil Leonards' family done consulting work for any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Are there any other conflicts that Wil Leonards might have with respect to any of the companies mentioned above? A: Yes, there are. Q: Which are they? A: Wil Leonards is a satisfied and content consumer of Yahoo! products and therefore has natural interest in that company's well-being. |
__________________________________________________________________________________________
| Back to "Portfolio"-Page |