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Those who live by the sword, die by the sword
Questions and answers about the Pirelli-style calendar that Ryanair has recently published, first
drafted on Dec. 13, 2007, published on Jan. 2, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: What does Noah denkt™ make of the Pirelli-style calendar that Ryanair has published recently?
A: Thank you for asking this question. For, this is truly an issue that needs to be discussed.
Q: Why?
A: Because not many people seem to see the business implication that such a marketing approach invariably has.
Q: Why would you say this? After all, the vast majority of financial analysts are currently rating the Ryanair stock
as a ”buy” or a “hold”. So surely they must have understood that this new publicity generated by the calendar will
drive more business towards the company.
A: Well, it may be, that the vast majority of analysts have factored this publicity into their forecast. The problem,
however, is that they are getting wrong, when they read this calendar as a sign that the Ryanair stock will
continuously rise in the years to come. For too reckless has this recent PR move been, that one could now still
expect that its perpetrator will not eventually have to pay for it.
Q: So you think that the publication of this calendar was a reckless move?
A: In deed, we do.
Q: But what’s wrong with it?
A: It is the fact that Ryanair has gone forward with publishing the calendar even though its management must
have been aware of the fact that questions will arise as to whether the superior bargaining position of the
employer have been abused in this case to pressure employees into an exhibitionist behavior that can only be
described as demeaning and incongruent with the task that they were originally hired for.
Q: So you find pictures of nude girls demeaning?
A: Not at all, as long as it is clear that the girls who are depicted that way do what they do out of their own accord.
Q: But apparently this is exactly the case in the Ryanair calendar. After all, Ryanair has let it be known that the
idea for these photos came from the flight attendants themselves? So there is really no reason to believe, that
someone might have been pressured into something that he, himself, did not want to do?
A: Well, that is, of course, if you believe the Ryanair statement.
Q: But why should I not believe it.
A: Because Ryanair has a history of being reckless. And so Noah denkt™ has a hard time to trust it this time
around.
Q: What are you referring to when you talk about a history of reckless on the part of Ryanair?
A: Well, just remember the publicity stunt that they created earlier when they promised prospective clients to
award them a free flight if they were to show up at a certain time in a central square in Barcelona carrying a sign
that derides competitor Iberia Airlines. Do you find that an acceptable way of campaigning?
Q: Well, it is certainly tough. But tough is not always reckless. After all, it is sometimes necessary to be tough, if
only to make your stance heard.
A: Right. In deed, it is sometimes necessary to be tough. But is it okay in this instance?
Q: I cannot tell, because I do not know the circumstances that have led to this PR move. It may well be that Iberia
has done something beforehand that was equally unfair.
A: Perhaps, you are right. But, even if it might be justified to have attacked Iberia in such a manner, it smacks off
bad judgment on the part of Ryanair to have exposed its flight attendants in such a way. After all, these flight
attendants do not only have feel-good - and service function during the flight, no they also exercise a security
role. And so it is at least inconsiderate to have depicted them as sex symbols. For too much does this undercut
their in-flight authority that one could now still go ahead condoning that.
Q: I think that you are exaggerating here. After all, this calendar was just meant to be funny. And so you should
not be a bad sport negating that. For too serious is life otherwise that one could now not justify these seldom
minutes of relieve.
A: Well, I am sorry, but mixing fun and security does not work for relaxing us. And what’s more, if this really had
been all about fun, why then has neither of the company directors decided to pose in this calendar. Wouldn’t that
have been the ultimate fun?
Q: Okay, perhaps, you are right. Perhaps it was a bad idea to put hired employees in the line of fun. But even, if
that was a mistake to do that, this does not necessarily mean that consequently the whole Ryanair business will
be impacted by that. After all, this was only a mishap in one of their non-core-departments. And so you could not
deduct from this an overall operations problem. For too back-office related has this issue been that there
performance prospects should be affected by this.
A: Well, don’t you think that a company who shows such bad, i.e. cheap marketing judgment, will show equally
cheap judgment when it comes to managing its relationship with clients, technology partners, credit lenders,
service providers, maintenance personnel and others? And don’t you think that this unabashed and self-indulgent
manner of doing business will eventually come to haunt the company? For too likely is it, that their constituents
will finally be so irritated and annoyed by this, that they will want to take it out on Ryanair when the first
opportunity allows them to.
Q: Why are you so pessimistic? After all, the main thing that these “constituents” want is to make or save money.
And so they surely will not want to sever relationships with Ryanair as long as they can profit from it.
A: That is certainly true. Surely the problems with these constituents will only arise, when Ryanair will go through a
patch of bad earning seasons. But once that happens, the devils that have been created by it will come back to
torture it with a vengeance.
Q: Perhaps, that is true. But even if the devils will eventually strike back at Ryanair, that does not necessarily
mean that one has to get out its stocks right now. After all, this backlash will only come as time goes by. And so it
would be stupid to forego the money making opportunity that the Ryanair equity is offering now. For too likely is it,
that its recent publicity stunt will drive further business towards the company that one should not take advantage
of that now.
A: So you share then the same opinion that the vast majority of Ryanair analysts holds at this time.
Q: In deed, I do.
A: Well, it will not come as a surprise to you, if we tell you, that here again, we beg to disagree with that majority.
Q: No, it doesn’t surprise me. But go on, tell me why Noah denkt™ once again needs to be the odd man out here?
A: Con mucho gusto, as they say in Mexico. Well, what leads us to be more skeptical in this respect is the
observation that you can never tell when the fortunes of a company might be turning. Therefore, we believe, that
it is better to never even touch a hot rod in the first place. For too likely is that one will not find the right dropping
point, that one could now still hope to avoid getting one’s fingers burned.
Q. But isn’t it illogical to be involved in economic speculation in the first place, if you believe that it is that
impossible to predict turning points.
A: Not at all. Because our idea of economic speculation is not to ride out of waves but much rather to identify
what’s right and wrong. Because too much is it in this fundamental honesty that all continuous value creation rests
in, that we could now still want to risk that betting on unforeseeable probabilities.
Q: But isn’t that what you are doing? You are betting on the fact that a bad patch company earnings will come for
Ryanair?
A: That’s not betting. That is just prudent reasoning.
Q: Why is that?
A: Because no company, not even Noah denkt™, will be able to avoid an up and down of its fortunes. So the real
question for a company is not, how to avoid a downturn, but much rather how to conduct its business in such a
way that the downturn will not be worse than it necessarily has to be.
Q: Well that to me sounds like a pretty risk-averse stance?
A: Not at all. This is just a forward looking stance. And because it is so forward looking it is also risky enterprise.
For too shortsighted has our economy become nowadays, that it would not equal an existential risk-taking to be
reasonable therein.
Q: So that’s then how you justify yourself.
A: Yes, that is how we do it.
Q: Well, I can only wish you good luck with it, because luck is certainly what you will need with such a
fundamentalism.
A: Well, thanks for your kind wishes. We really need that support.
Questions and answers about the Pirelli-style calendar that Ryanair has recently published, first
drafted on Dec. 13, 2007, published on Jan. 2, 2008
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Q: What does Noah denkt™ make of the Pirelli-style calendar that Ryanair has published recently?
A: Thank you for asking this question. For, this is truly an issue that needs to be discussed.
Q: Why?
A: Because not many people seem to see the business implication that such a marketing approach invariably has.
Q: Why would you say this? After all, the vast majority of financial analysts are currently rating the Ryanair stock
as a ”buy” or a “hold”. So surely they must have understood that this new publicity generated by the calendar will
drive more business towards the company.
A: Well, it may be, that the vast majority of analysts have factored this publicity into their forecast. The problem,
however, is that they are getting wrong, when they read this calendar as a sign that the Ryanair stock will
continuously rise in the years to come. For too reckless has this recent PR move been, that one could now still
expect that its perpetrator will not eventually have to pay for it.
Q: So you think that the publication of this calendar was a reckless move?
A: In deed, we do.
Q: But what’s wrong with it?
A: It is the fact that Ryanair has gone forward with publishing the calendar even though its management must
have been aware of the fact that questions will arise as to whether the superior bargaining position of the
employer have been abused in this case to pressure employees into an exhibitionist behavior that can only be
described as demeaning and incongruent with the task that they were originally hired for.
Q: So you find pictures of nude girls demeaning?
A: Not at all, as long as it is clear that the girls who are depicted that way do what they do out of their own accord.
Q: But apparently this is exactly the case in the Ryanair calendar. After all, Ryanair has let it be known that the
idea for these photos came from the flight attendants themselves? So there is really no reason to believe, that
someone might have been pressured into something that he, himself, did not want to do?
A: Well, that is, of course, if you believe the Ryanair statement.
Q: But why should I not believe it.
A: Because Ryanair has a history of being reckless. And so Noah denkt™ has a hard time to trust it this time
around.
Q: What are you referring to when you talk about a history of reckless on the part of Ryanair?
A: Well, just remember the publicity stunt that they created earlier when they promised prospective clients to
award them a free flight if they were to show up at a certain time in a central square in Barcelona carrying a sign
that derides competitor Iberia Airlines. Do you find that an acceptable way of campaigning?
Q: Well, it is certainly tough. But tough is not always reckless. After all, it is sometimes necessary to be tough, if
only to make your stance heard.
A: Right. In deed, it is sometimes necessary to be tough. But is it okay in this instance?
Q: I cannot tell, because I do not know the circumstances that have led to this PR move. It may well be that Iberia
has done something beforehand that was equally unfair.
A: Perhaps, you are right. But, even if it might be justified to have attacked Iberia in such a manner, it smacks off
bad judgment on the part of Ryanair to have exposed its flight attendants in such a way. After all, these flight
attendants do not only have feel-good - and service function during the flight, no they also exercise a security
role. And so it is at least inconsiderate to have depicted them as sex symbols. For too much does this undercut
their in-flight authority that one could now still go ahead condoning that.
Q: I think that you are exaggerating here. After all, this calendar was just meant to be funny. And so you should
not be a bad sport negating that. For too serious is life otherwise that one could now not justify these seldom
minutes of relieve.
A: Well, I am sorry, but mixing fun and security does not work for relaxing us. And what’s more, if this really had
been all about fun, why then has neither of the company directors decided to pose in this calendar. Wouldn’t that
have been the ultimate fun?
Q: Okay, perhaps, you are right. Perhaps it was a bad idea to put hired employees in the line of fun. But even, if
that was a mistake to do that, this does not necessarily mean that consequently the whole Ryanair business will
be impacted by that. After all, this was only a mishap in one of their non-core-departments. And so you could not
deduct from this an overall operations problem. For too back-office related has this issue been that there
performance prospects should be affected by this.
A: Well, don’t you think that a company who shows such bad, i.e. cheap marketing judgment, will show equally
cheap judgment when it comes to managing its relationship with clients, technology partners, credit lenders,
service providers, maintenance personnel and others? And don’t you think that this unabashed and self-indulgent
manner of doing business will eventually come to haunt the company? For too likely is it, that their constituents
will finally be so irritated and annoyed by this, that they will want to take it out on Ryanair when the first
opportunity allows them to.
Q: Why are you so pessimistic? After all, the main thing that these “constituents” want is to make or save money.
And so they surely will not want to sever relationships with Ryanair as long as they can profit from it.
A: That is certainly true. Surely the problems with these constituents will only arise, when Ryanair will go through a
patch of bad earning seasons. But once that happens, the devils that have been created by it will come back to
torture it with a vengeance.
Q: Perhaps, that is true. But even if the devils will eventually strike back at Ryanair, that does not necessarily
mean that one has to get out its stocks right now. After all, this backlash will only come as time goes by. And so it
would be stupid to forego the money making opportunity that the Ryanair equity is offering now. For too likely is it,
that its recent publicity stunt will drive further business towards the company that one should not take advantage
of that now.
A: So you share then the same opinion that the vast majority of Ryanair analysts holds at this time.
Q: In deed, I do.
A: Well, it will not come as a surprise to you, if we tell you, that here again, we beg to disagree with that majority.
Q: No, it doesn’t surprise me. But go on, tell me why Noah denkt™ once again needs to be the odd man out here?
A: Con mucho gusto, as they say in Mexico. Well, what leads us to be more skeptical in this respect is the
observation that you can never tell when the fortunes of a company might be turning. Therefore, we believe, that
it is better to never even touch a hot rod in the first place. For too likely is that one will not find the right dropping
point, that one could now still hope to avoid getting one’s fingers burned.
Q. But isn’t it illogical to be involved in economic speculation in the first place, if you believe that it is that
impossible to predict turning points.
A: Not at all. Because our idea of economic speculation is not to ride out of waves but much rather to identify
what’s right and wrong. Because too much is it in this fundamental honesty that all continuous value creation rests
in, that we could now still want to risk that betting on unforeseeable probabilities.
Q: But isn’t that what you are doing? You are betting on the fact that a bad patch company earnings will come for
Ryanair?
A: That’s not betting. That is just prudent reasoning.
Q: Why is that?
A: Because no company, not even Noah denkt™, will be able to avoid an up and down of its fortunes. So the real
question for a company is not, how to avoid a downturn, but much rather how to conduct its business in such a
way that the downturn will not be worse than it necessarily has to be.
Q: Well that to me sounds like a pretty risk-averse stance?
A: Not at all. This is just a forward looking stance. And because it is so forward looking it is also risky enterprise.
For too shortsighted has our economy become nowadays, that it would not equal an existential risk-taking to be
reasonable therein.
Q: So that’s then how you justify yourself.
A: Yes, that is how we do it.
Q: Well, I can only wish you good luck with it, because luck is certainly what you will need with such a
fundamentalism.
A: Well, thanks for your kind wishes. We really need that support.
| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
| Conflict of Interest Statement with respect to Ryanair and Iberia Airliens Q: Does Wil Leonards hold shares in Ryanair and/or Iberia Airlines? A: No Q: Has Wil Leonards done consulting work for Ryanair and/or Iberia Airlines? A: No Q: Do members of Wil Leonards' family hold shares in Ryanair and/or Iberia Airlines? A: No Q: Have members of Wil Leonards' family done consulting work for Ryanair and/or Iberia Airlines? A: No |
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Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
| Addition to this Q&A from Jan. 6, 2009: Noah denkt™ believes that the Ryanair share price is likely to rise in 2009, due to an albeit modest recovery of the overall economy in the coming year. |