Noah denkt™  -
    Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy
You need Java to see this applet.
Quality Control 2012
Review of Noah denkt™’s annual prediction performance, published on Jan.4, 2013

Our performance in 2012 is a pretty difficult for us to summarize.
Being stubbornly long on the common European
currency,  we are, obviously,  pleased with the fact that the EURO-area managed to stabilize itself and that as a
result of this stock markets witnessed a considerable rally towards the end of the year. Of course, a lot of this
stabilization of the Euro-area is due to the European Central Bank’s promise to shore up the debt ridden
countries of the South no matter what. Noah denkt™ which had earlier on
called for a more active role of the ECB
in the current crisis, has defended Mr. Draghi’s stewardship in this matter against any criticism, he received after
overruling the Bundesbank’s objection to a lender of last resort role. Likewise, can there be no doubt that Noah
denkt™ has
defended and encouraged not only the European Stabilization Mechanism and the European
Banking Union but also the structural reforms undertaken by countries such as Spain and Portugal. So, we could
easily argue that this year’s stock exchange gains are in line with our own predictions if it weren’t for
a May 16
article where, in the course of a longer conversation between Noah denkt™ (Nd) and its Alter Ego (AE), we
choose to make the following statement:

    AE: In other words, Noah denkt™ doesn’t share the opinion of most experts according to which France and Germany will
    have no other option but to engage in a constructive cooperation despite the ideological differences that may exist between
    German Chancellor Merkel and newly-elect French President Hollande?
    Nd: No, after what we have seen yesterday [that is the first Merkel-Hollande press conference] it seems to us, as if an
    ideological battle between pro- and anti-Keynesian views is imminent, that this confrontation will eventually see its “Cuba-
    Missile-Crisis-Moment”. Obviously, this dramatic confrontation will be necessary to overcome the ideological rift between the
    two countries and we are convinced that Germany’s supply side position will ultimately prevail due to its superior analysis and

    AE: Does it follow from this then that stock markets will, hence, go down for a while?
    Nd: That is probably true. Nevertheless we are not too concerned by that. Because, in the end, Mr. Hollande and his
    Keynesian troops will come under so much market pressure that they will not have another choice but to renege on their
    earlier Keynesian positions.” (Roughly translated from the original German wording)

Now, a benevolent read of this excerpt would surely come to the conclusion that the above prediction by and large
turned out to be true in the course of 2012. Because not only did markets go down in the immediate aftermath of
May 16, and not only was there a dramatic European summit that eventually produced the ESM-project; no, more
than that it also so happened that
Mr. Hollande changed the broader direction of his economic policies, albeit way
sooner than we had originally expected that. Nevertheless, the sad truth is, that Noah denkt™ at no point after
May 16 stated, that it would now officially consider the predicted down period as being behind us. In other words,
we didn’t really anticipate the stock market rally that carried through right to the end of 2012. Instead, we kept
waiting to see how Euro members would choose to deal with
the never ending Greek debt crisis. And once it
became clear that Euro leaders wouldn’t have the courage to force a Greek exit from the Euro currency we
became so disheartened by that decision that we were unable to take advantage of the ensuing market rally. In
fact, it is our opinion that the lack of backbone in dealing with the Greek malaise will form the basis for more
European mishaps at a later stage. Now, it may well be, that this next mishap is still quite some time off.
Nevertheless, we can’t help but feel uneasy about the fact that reasonable balance hasn’t been achieved in this

So, given the fact that
we have promised our readers a most rigorous and honest Golden Rule approach, our
value added numbers for this is year read as follows:
Jan 3, 2012
May 15, 2012
Noah denkt™'s
Value Added
May 16,2012
Dec. 31, 2012
Noah denkt™’s
Value Added
Bullish Sentiment
Bearish Sentiment
Dow Jones
S&P 500
Dax (closed on
Dec. 28)
(Dec. 28)
E.-Stoxx 50
FTSE 100
Total added value of predictions of Noah denkt™ in 2012
Medium added value of predictions of Noah denkt™ in 2012
(-60,58% : 6)
You won’t be surprised to hear that we have asked ourselves whether it is truly fair to measure our 2012
performance in the brutal manner presented above. But we have come to the conclusion that we can’t possibly
ask the Greeks and the Spaniards to take all their hardship in a stride if we ourselves aren’t willing to swallow the
pain that we have created here for ourselves. So there you go.....
© Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved.

Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all
rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt
brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV.

The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not
intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to
buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV
encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is
appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended