Project for Philosophical Evaluations of the Economy |
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Well Chartered
Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on May 9, published on May 14, 2008
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Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): I remember you saying that banks could never be a viable
investment alternative due to the fashion-mindedness of their employees. Does Noah denkt™ still stand by this
statement?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Yes and no.
AE: Why the ambivalence?
Nd: Because there are times, when even bankers show some humility. And so it also then when you can trust their
expertise. – The problem however is, that even in this case, you always have to be on the look-out to find out
when this humility will turn into your standard exuberance. For too sure is it that this moment will eventually come,
that you could now still think of avoiding it.
AE: And your philosophy whereby you cannot exactly pin-point the turn-around of such a development would not
prohibit you from taking advantage of these humble phases?
Nd: Not necessarily.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because it is easier to identify a change in individual attitudes than it is to predict the explosion point of an
economic bubble.
AE: Okay, I accept that. The question that follows from this though is whether Noah denkt™ has a bank in mind
that is currently showing restrain?
Nd. Well, there are some candidates.
AE: Like whom?
Nd: Banks like Merrill Lynch or Schroders, for instance. But we aren’t ready to issue a recommendation about
either one of them as yet.
AE: I have another one for you.
Nd. And what is that?
AE: Standard Chartered! Aren’t you impressed with their success in Asia and the Middle East.
Nd: Yes, it’s truly impressive, what they have achieved, - in particular because they have managed to avoid all the
credit mistakes that others have made.
AE: And would you be willing to endorse them?
Nd: Noah denkt™ wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because we have too little first-hand experience in countries like Egypt, China, India, UAE to be able to
venture into this.
AE: But what is problem? Obviously Standard Chartered has that experience. So why not trust them with this?
Nd: Because we do not like to follow someone blindly. And because we still believe that the aforementioned
countries and cultures are still sufficiently opaque to not enter them lightly.
AE: What do you mean by “opaque”. After all, these countries too follow international reporting practices. And so
you could not argue that there is no transparency here.
Nd: Well, they might be following all these practices but they have not fully embraced the spirit that is behind them.
AE: Which is?
Nd: Make a good faith effort to be accessible and open to debate no matter how unrecognized the person might
be that is posing the questions.
AE: And why is this egalitarian open-mindedness so important?
Nd: Because it is only in a climate like this that you can have a free debate which will allows its participants to get
to the bottom of their intuition.
AE: So in other words you are saying, that you cannot take advantage of the tremendous growth opportunities
that exist in these emerging markets?
Nd: That’s right.
AE: And you consider this working in the best interest of the investment public?
Nd: Yes, we do. Because, we do not tell anyone not to do risk his assets there; it is just that we do not feel
comfortable doing that ourselves.
AE: So what exactly is the service that you provide here?
Nd: Well, we offer our best personal opinion. And we trust that this will help our readers to reach their best
personal perception.
AE: And that is viable business model?
Nd. We believe so, even if it has not proved to be viable so far.
AE: And what is it that make you optimistic here?
Nd: Faith and honesty.
AE: Just faith and honesty? Isn’t that a little too little to offer in the market place?
Nd: To the contrary, we believe that this is a very rare commodity and that eventually it will be compensated
lavishly here.
AE: Why?
Nd: Because of its capacity for independent thinking.
AE: But what good is it, to have a capacity for independent thinking if that ability does not help you to make a
living?
Nd: But we are still alive now.
AE: For the time being, yes. But what about the future?
Nd: We shall see, or better, you will see.
AE: So all you can tell me is “wait and see”?
Nd. Yes, all that we can tell you is wait and see and trust in the success that we have had so far.
AE: That’s asking a lot.
Nd. Yes, it is. But you can do it.
AE: But why should I?
Nd: Because you will be compensated for this.
AE: Your words in God’s ears.
Nd. So be it.
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Q&A between Noah denkt™ and its Alter Ego, first drafted on May 9, published on May 14, 2008
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Question by Alter Ego of Noah denkt™ (AE): I remember you saying that banks could never be a viable
investment alternative due to the fashion-mindedness of their employees. Does Noah denkt™ still stand by this
statement?
Answer by Noah denkt™ (Nd): Yes and no.
AE: Why the ambivalence?
Nd: Because there are times, when even bankers show some humility. And so it also then when you can trust their
expertise. – The problem however is, that even in this case, you always have to be on the look-out to find out
when this humility will turn into your standard exuberance. For too sure is it that this moment will eventually come,
that you could now still think of avoiding it.
AE: And your philosophy whereby you cannot exactly pin-point the turn-around of such a development would not
prohibit you from taking advantage of these humble phases?
Nd: Not necessarily.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because it is easier to identify a change in individual attitudes than it is to predict the explosion point of an
economic bubble.
AE: Okay, I accept that. The question that follows from this though is whether Noah denkt™ has a bank in mind
that is currently showing restrain?
Nd. Well, there are some candidates.
AE: Like whom?
Nd: Banks like Merrill Lynch or Schroders, for instance. But we aren’t ready to issue a recommendation about
either one of them as yet.
AE: I have another one for you.
Nd. And what is that?
AE: Standard Chartered! Aren’t you impressed with their success in Asia and the Middle East.
Nd: Yes, it’s truly impressive, what they have achieved, - in particular because they have managed to avoid all the
credit mistakes that others have made.
AE: And would you be willing to endorse them?
Nd: Noah denkt™ wouldn’t feel comfortable doing that.
AE: And why is that?
Nd: Because we have too little first-hand experience in countries like Egypt, China, India, UAE to be able to
venture into this.
AE: But what is problem? Obviously Standard Chartered has that experience. So why not trust them with this?
Nd: Because we do not like to follow someone blindly. And because we still believe that the aforementioned
countries and cultures are still sufficiently opaque to not enter them lightly.
AE: What do you mean by “opaque”. After all, these countries too follow international reporting practices. And so
you could not argue that there is no transparency here.
Nd: Well, they might be following all these practices but they have not fully embraced the spirit that is behind them.
AE: Which is?
Nd: Make a good faith effort to be accessible and open to debate no matter how unrecognized the person might
be that is posing the questions.
AE: And why is this egalitarian open-mindedness so important?
Nd: Because it is only in a climate like this that you can have a free debate which will allows its participants to get
to the bottom of their intuition.
AE: So in other words you are saying, that you cannot take advantage of the tremendous growth opportunities
that exist in these emerging markets?
Nd: That’s right.
AE: And you consider this working in the best interest of the investment public?
Nd: Yes, we do. Because, we do not tell anyone not to do risk his assets there; it is just that we do not feel
comfortable doing that ourselves.
AE: So what exactly is the service that you provide here?
Nd: Well, we offer our best personal opinion. And we trust that this will help our readers to reach their best
personal perception.
AE: And that is viable business model?
Nd. We believe so, even if it has not proved to be viable so far.
AE: And what is it that make you optimistic here?
Nd: Faith and honesty.
AE: Just faith and honesty? Isn’t that a little too little to offer in the market place?
Nd: To the contrary, we believe that this is a very rare commodity and that eventually it will be compensated
lavishly here.
AE: Why?
Nd: Because of its capacity for independent thinking.
AE: But what good is it, to have a capacity for independent thinking if that ability does not help you to make a
living?
Nd: But we are still alive now.
AE: For the time being, yes. But what about the future?
Nd: We shall see, or better, you will see.
AE: So all you can tell me is “wait and see”?
Nd. Yes, all that we can tell you is wait and see and trust in the success that we have had so far.
AE: That’s asking a lot.
Nd. Yes, it is. But you can do it.
AE: But why should I?
Nd: Because you will be compensated for this.
AE: Your words in God’s ears.
Nd. So be it.
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| © Landei Selbstverlag, owned by Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards, Gerolstein, Germany. All rights reserved. Reminder: Noah denkt™ is a project of Wilhelm ("Wil") Leonards and his Landei Selbstverlag (WL & his LSV). Consequently, all rights to the texts that have been published under the Noah denkt™brand name are reserved by WL & his LSV. The commentary and the reasoning that was provided on this page is for informational and/or educational purposes only and it is not intended to provide tax, legal or investment advice. It should therefore not be construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any security or any issuer by WL & his LSV or its Noah denkt™ Project. In fact, WL & his LSV encourage the user to understand that he alone is responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy is appropriate or suitable for him. And to leave no doubt as to what this means we urge our user to also note our extended Legal Notice. |
| Conflict of Interest Statement with respect to the companies mentioned in Q&A above Q: Does Wil Leonards hold shares in any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Has Wil Leonards done consulting work for any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Does he intend to develop a commercial relationship with any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Do members of Wil Leonards' family hold shares in any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Have members of Wil Leonards' family done consulting work for any of the companies mentioned above? A: No Q: Does a member of his family intend to develop a commercial relationship with any of the companies mentioned above? A: No |
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| Addition to this Q&A from Jan. 6, 2009: Noah denkt™ believes that the Standard Chartered share price is likely to rise in 2009, due to an albeit modest recovery of the overall economy in the coming year. |